Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday released the GDP data for the fourth quarter of the FY 2019-2020. The data recorded slow growth of 3.1% for the fourth quarter of the FY 2019-2020. The growth in the previous quarter Q3 FY 2019-2020 was 4.7%. The overall growth for the FY year 2019-2020 was 4.2% as compared to 6.1% in FY 2018-2019.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimated at 5% for the previous financial year. NSO estimated similar growth in its first and second advance estimates released earlier this year.
In gross value added terms the Indian economy grew by 3% in Q4 vs 4.5% in Q3.
Sector-wise growth rates
Financials and realty sectors growth was at 2.4%. Trade, telecom, transport, hotels growth at 2.6%. Manufacturing growth at 0% for the FY 2019-2020 vs 5.7% for the previous year.
The April core sector growth was -38.1% vs -9% in March. This is the worst performance since 2005.
The coal sector output down 15% year on year. Cement and steel sector output down by more than 80%. Fertilizer, crude oil, natural gas output were also down by 4.5%, 6.4%, and 19.9% respectively.
Index for Industrial Production is also expected to contract due to the fall in the core sector output.
Deficits and Estimates
The increased borrowing due to the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the fiscal deficit of the government. The FY20 revenue deficit at 6.67 lakh crore vs 5 lakh crore target. This FY 20 fiscal deficit stood at 4.59% of GDP. The fiscal deficit in absolute terms for FY20 was at 9.35 lakh crore vs 7.66 lakh crore. The April- March budget deficit reaches 122% of the FY20 target. The FY20 tax revenue stood at Rs.20 lakh crore vs Rs.21.63 lakh crore target.
Further revisions to GDP data were also released
- The growth for Q1 was revised from 5.6% to 5.2%
- Q2 revised from 5.1% to 4.4%
- Q3 revised from 4.7% to 4.1%
The government also mentioned that the GDP data are subject to further revisions.
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